The 5-MINUTE HANDICAPPERtm


CAN YOU BEAT THE RACES?

Can you make a profit betting the horses? This is a question that has been asked many times. The answer is "yes", but it is difficult and few ever beat the races. As with any gambling game, you start with a big disadvantage. The Track and the Government take from 17% to 25% out of the betting pool (the "take") before you get paid.
This is a big disadvantage that is hard to beat, but if you bet the lottery, the take is much larger - sometimes 60% or more. No way can you beat that disadvantage. In fact, your chances of hitting the lottery are the same as getting struck by lightning.
As one public figure has stated, your chances of hitting the lottery are the same whether you play or don't play.

Also, if you go to any casino, there is no way to beat the house, with just a few exceptions (i.e. blackjack, progressive video poker, and poker). All other games of chance will eventually beat you; the mathematics are against you. But, in some cases, the "take" is very small, down to as low as 1%. Hence, you will eventually lose, but in a slower fashion.

On the other hand, some casino games are deadly. For example, your odds of hitting the 15-spot Keno bet offered in Nevada are several billion to one, and has never been hit, and probably never will be in our lifetime.

The only other games of chance you can beat are those where you are competing against other players. HORSE RACING is one of those games. To beat horse racing, you must beat the crowd enough to offset the 17% to 25% take!

However, even in investment markets, the take is higher than you would think. If you trade commodities, options or are a short-term stock trader, the "take" could be as high as 15% or more for you must pay commissions and the difference between the bid and asked price for these financial instruments.

As in the investments markets, to beat the horse races, you must beat the crowd. Surprisingly, horse racing is far more predictable than most people think, for, over a century, the most heavily bet horse, or the "favorite" has won each race one-third of the time. So the public, or the crowd, is right about 33% of the time. However, if you always bet the favorite, you would lose - the take is too high and payoffs will not cover your losses.

The key to success in the investment markets is to identify undiscovered value, whether it be in stocks, bonds, options or commodities. The same principle applies to horse racing. You must identify the undiscovered horse that has a good chance of winning the race.

Analyzing horse races is a great intellectual challenge that has become much more sophisticated with the increasing use of computers and Internet services. Over the past few decades there have been several excellent books written by academia that have greatly improved the skill and knowledge of the horse player making it tougher to beat the game due to the increased competition.

But there is still a group of horse players that makes a living betting the horses. These horseplayers together have a vast amount of experience in analyzing races by studying the Daily Racing Form or an on-line version of this publication, and by reviewing charts and videos of past races. Usually it takes a lot of hard work to properly analyze a race.

My goal then in developing the 5-Minute Handicapper program was to have much of the hard work done for you and to remove the subjectivity of the horse selection process - for your greatest enemy when you play the horses is your emotions, which will ebb and flow as you bet each race and will color and distort your selection process.

The program is designed to select the best horse or horses in the race, those that have the best chance of generating a long-term profit - in other words - the MOST VALUE, by just entering a few items from the Daily Racing Form for each horse. Therefore, the pure novice can use this program without the many years of experience that are normally needed to beat the game.

One big obstacle faced by many horse players is information overload, or analysis paralysis. There is so much information available on each horse in the Racing Form that the horse player gets lost in the details; what facts are important, and what facts are not? No one really knows.

To develop the 5-Minute Handicapper, we used the existing research available in the field, plus some of our own. Through the use of statistical analysis tools such as multiple regression analysis, you can pinpoint the key variables that have the greatest influence on the results of a race, and also get a weighting of each of these variables in the outcome of the race. That is how we developed this program.

We then back tested it over several hundred races to ensure that in the past it would have generated a long-term profit. In the past, the program would have generated a profit in the range of 2%-5%on each bet if you bet the first rated horse to win in every race that you analyze.

Therefore, the program is designed to identify the best value in the race. Past history suggests that our best "horse" will win about 26%-28% of the time. But the past is not the future and things can change in the racing game.

GO FOR THE HOME RUNS

The key to success in most investments, whether it is the stock market or horse racing, is to hit the homeruns. To hit the homeruns in horse racing, you must hit some long shots or some high paying exotics (i.e. quinellas, exactas, the Pick 6, Daily Doubles, etc). Consequently, when using the 5-Minute Handicapper, if the first or second best horse selected is a long shot, increase you bet. If the "selected" horse is bet down below 6-5 odds, don't play it, or make a small bet, or only play it in the exotics. By the way, most long shots are BAD bets. So, only play such horses if the program selects them as Number 1, or Number 2. The beauty of the long shot is that one winner will pay for a lot of losers.

USING THE 5 MINUTE HANDICAPPER

INSTALLATION

To install the program, place the program disk in Drive A or B, and from Windows Run A: or B:SETUP. Then follow the Setup instructions.


ENTERING DATA

The 5-Minute Handicapper has been designed for ease of use. You will need a Daily Racing Form, either from the newsstand, or on-line through the Internet. Once you have the Racing Form in hand, you are ready to use the 5-Minute Handicapper.

USING THE SPRINT MODULE

THE 5-Minute Handicapper is made up of two separate programs. The Sprint Program and the Route Program. The Sprint Program handicaps races of less than one mile. The Route Program handicaps races of one mile or more.

The first horse you analyze should be the one in the first post position, and so on.
To enter data click on "File" and select "New Race". Once you are done entering data for one horse, click on the "Add a Horse" button.

To move from the Sprint Module to the Route Module or vice versa, click on "Module".


The Sprint module requires six inputs for each horse.

1. A Jockey Rating.
2. Number of wins in the last 10 races.
3. Finish in last race.
4. An early speed grade.
5. Number of days since last race.
6. Speed rating - Beyer's Speed Points

<Table 1>

1. A jockey rating - measures how good the jockey is. An "A" should be given to the top five jockeys at the track. The rating can be found in the Racing Form on the page preceding the track's past performance. An "A" can also be given to leading jockeys that come from other tracks. If a jockey can win 17% or more of his races, you should usually designate an "A" rating.

A "B" rating should be given to jockeys who have ridden the horse before, or are close to the top five jockeys. a "C" rating should be given to all other jockeys.

2. Number of wins in past 10 races.

Next enter the number of wins in the past 10 races. If the horse has raced less than 10 times, just enter the number of wins.

3. Finish in last race: Enter how the horse performed in the last race. You are given the following choices:

Won> 2
Won -
Second
Within 2
Within 4
Within 6
Within 8
More than 8

Click on" Won>2" if the horse won by 2 or more lengths.
Click on" Won" if the horse won the race, but by less than 2 lengths.
Click on"Second" if the horse ran second.
Click on "Within 2" if the horse finished within 2 lengths of the winner.
Click on "Within 4" if the horse finished within 4 or less lengths of the lead (but more than 2 lengths).
Click on "Within 8" if the horse finished within 8 or less lengths, but more than 4 lengths of the lead.
Click on "More than 8" if the horse finished more than 8 lengths from the lead.

One suggestion here...if the horse's last race was at a route distance or on the turf, rather than the dirt, or if the horse had a major excuse for a poor performance (i.e. sloppy track), then use the race before the last race.

4. Early Speed. Rate the early speed with a "A" for Excellent, "B" for Good, "C" for Fair, and "D" for no early speed. Early speed is defined as being close to the lead or on the lead at the "first call" of the race. The first call is given in the past performance of the horse as indicated in Table I.

Give the horse an "A" if the horse was within 2 lengths of the lead or on the lead in its last three sprint races. Give the horse a "B" if the horse was within 2 lengths of the lead in 2 out of 3 of its last sprint races. Give the horse a "C" if it was within 2 lengths of the lead in one of its last 2 races. If the horse has no sprint races, the horse must be within 1/2 a length of the lead instead of 2 lengths.

5. The Number of Days Since Last Race.

Here you enter the number of days since the horse's last race.


6. Speed Rating

Here you enter the speed rating for the horse. Use the Beyer's Speed Points available in the Daily Racing Form. Check Table I. If that speed rating is not available, use the regular speed rating. For best results, use an average of the Beyer's Speed Points for the horse's two best sprint races out of the past six races where the horse finished within two lengths of the lead. If the horse did not finish within two lengths of the lead, pick the best rating at the distance that you can find in the Racing Form.

Once you have entered these few pieces of information, you are ready to move to the next horse in the next post position.

Once you have entered the data for each horse, just click on "Calculate" and the computer will give you its top 3 selections. In addition, you will receive an odds line telling you the odds of each horse winning, based on your inputs. This will tell you how strong the 3 selections are, and if there are some real standouts. Sometimes the difference between the first and second selection is quite close or a toss-up. Then select the horse with the best odds.
If you wish to save this race, Click on File, and then Save Race.








THE ROUTE MODULE

The Route Program has five inputs

1. A Jockey Rating
2. Number of Wins in Last 10 Races
3. Number of Races This Year
4. Earnings for the Last Year
5. Speed Ratings

These inputs are shown in Table 2; several are the same as for Sprints. When the horse has raced less than 5 races this year, use last year's earnings combined with this year's, and the number of races would then be combined for both years. When entering Earnings just enter the earnings in thousands of dollars. For example, $22,456 would be entered as 22. Earnings of $22,650 would be entered as 23. In other words, round off to the nearest thousand.
< Table 2>




BETTING STRATEGY

To make a long term profit at horse racing, you must hit some long shots or high paying exotic bets. Therefore, only make win bets or exotic bets. AVOID place and show bets; such bets do not give you enough reward for the risks that you take. In other words, the payoffs are too small. Every dollar that you invest must give you potential for a good return.

How much should you bet? The amount that you bet will depend on your starting capital for this game, and your comfort level. Some players are only comfortable with a $2 bet, while others enjoy much larger bets. Horse racing can be very challenging and entertaining as you strive to make a profit. But, if your bets are too large, this could be a miserable experience where you could incur a major financial hit. You must be prepared for some losing streaks, and sometimes they can be long losing streaks. Be prepared for such events and make sure you can handle the downside, or else lower your bet.

Also, try to keep your bets even. In other words, bet about the same amount on each horse and don't plunge. A classic error of the horse player is to bet bigger after a series of losers to get their money back. You are sure to lose under these conditions. The best way to handle a losing streak is to LOWER your bet, not to increase it.


OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

The 5-Minute Handicapper was only back tested on dirt races and was not tested on Maiden races due to the lack of past performance information in such races. Some preliminary testing of turf route races suggests that the Route Module should be helpful in the analysis of such races.


HINTS TO IMPROVE THE RESULTS AND SPEED OF USING THE PROGRAM

When using the Sprint Module - when asked for the number of wins in the last ten races - you can also put in the number of times the horse was within 2 lengths (or was 1st, 2nd or 3rd) of the winner instead. This number in one study suggested better predictive results.

To speed up the selection process, you might only evaluate the true contenders in the race, especially in races where there are a lot of horses. One easy way to do this is to not evaluate horses where the jockey rating is only a "C". Such jockeys rarely win and have a strong negative bias in the program.


WHERE TO PLAY

Today you have many alternative ways to play the horses; you can go to the race track; in Nevada, many casinos have race books where you can bet several tracks at a time; and many states in the U.S. have satellite betting facilities where you can also bet on races at several race tracks.

In addition, in many U. S. states you can bet the horses by telephone. You can also play the horses on the Internet and by telephone at offshore race books. But be careful when betting through such facilities. Make sure you are dealing with a reputable establishment that is fully licenced and legal or you may never see your money.

The 5-Minute HandicapperTM

The Automatic 5-Minute Handicapper

To access this file, you need to contact Bloodstock Research Information Services and set up an account. The file type is called DRF Datafiles (single). Presently they charge $1 to download this file for each track.

Using the Automatic 5-Minute Handicapper

A better alternative is to go to www.brisnet.com and click on FREE software. Then download the program PPGenerator. By running this program, you can unzip the DRF Datafile. PP Gnerator can also generate the past performances similar to those found in the Racing Form.

Preparing The File For Analysis

If you wish to make changes to the data, such as a change in jockey ratings, click on "import", specify the desired file and then click on "Open Race" and then specify the Race file to open (i.e. sar0824-03.5mh - 3rd race at Saratoga on August 24).

Additional Features